This is one of the best book reviews I have ever read. It does a great job of explaining Silver’s unique insight into many subjects - I believe a key litmus test for people is whether they appreciate what he has to offer. I am definitely more of a Villager, not down with accelerationists etc., but I am routinely wowed by what he has to say. Looking forward to the book!
I have to confess that, even as a poker-playing, one time contrarian investing, fully paid up bayesian, german boardgame devotee, I am much more interested in the critiques in the second half of this than in the Riverian line of thinking itself.
We had a Riverian at the heart of government here in the UK a couple of years ago, and it turned out that he was mostly interested in breaking things than really building better. I think that there's a solid case to be made that good government has other concerns about downsides and the distribution of outcomes that need to be factored into decisions alongside pure EV. That's not to say that there isn't a lot of rent seeking and barriers to action built up in modern western states.
Also, fascinated by this quote: "if we want to encourage calculated risk-taking for the benefit of society, we need an account of what happens to the people who go for it and fail. And if we aren’t willing to cushion their landing, we are probably incentivizing too much risk-averse behavior." - I think this idea might be somewhat contraversial in some Riverian groups.
Speaking from someone on the edge of the Village, phenomenal review. I'd take that $100B dice roll instantly, but not if it goes higher than say 40. What does that say about me?
This is one of the best book reviews I have ever read. It does a great job of explaining Silver’s unique insight into many subjects - I believe a key litmus test for people is whether they appreciate what he has to offer. I am definitely more of a Villager, not down with accelerationists etc., but I am routinely wowed by what he has to say. Looking forward to the book!
I’d already preordered the book, but this review made me much more confident I’ll enjoy it! Well-written.
I have to confess that, even as a poker-playing, one time contrarian investing, fully paid up bayesian, german boardgame devotee, I am much more interested in the critiques in the second half of this than in the Riverian line of thinking itself.
We had a Riverian at the heart of government here in the UK a couple of years ago, and it turned out that he was mostly interested in breaking things than really building better. I think that there's a solid case to be made that good government has other concerns about downsides and the distribution of outcomes that need to be factored into decisions alongside pure EV. That's not to say that there isn't a lot of rent seeking and barriers to action built up in modern western states.
Also, fascinated by this quote: "if we want to encourage calculated risk-taking for the benefit of society, we need an account of what happens to the people who go for it and fail. And if we aren’t willing to cushion their landing, we are probably incentivizing too much risk-averse behavior." - I think this idea might be somewhat contraversial in some Riverian groups.
Speaking from someone on the edge of the Village, phenomenal review. I'd take that $100B dice roll instantly, but not if it goes higher than say 40. What does that say about me?