The Republican Conference is operating as two Political Parties not one. And, as you described it, there are irreconcilable differences. This mirrors the Republican Party nationally. My hunch is that we are witnessing the “once in 60 years” breakup of a National Political Party similar to what happened to the Democrats in 1968. Then the Southern Democrats split into the George Wallace camp and subsequently joined the Republican Party. It also happened in 1912, 1856 and 1828. Who the Speaker is, while functionally important, is only a symptom. In the past, after a split like this, one of the parties joins the opposition. In this case it will lead inevitably to a “coalition” Congressional Party of moderate Republicans and Democrats. What that will mean nationally is another question.
Perhaps but that’s not what happens historically. The National Parties are pretty good at adapting and picking up other factions when they lose a big one. For example the Democratic Party, after 1968, lost the “solid Democratic South” left over from their Civil War inheritance, and became the Party of Civil Rights, not only for African Americans but for all minorities, LGBTQ, Hispanics, native Americans etc. The “New” Democratic Party recovered to elect Carter, Clinton, Obama and Biden. The Republicans elected Nixon/ Ford, Reagan, Bush I and Bush II, and Trump. It turned out about even. It’s human nature. It’s always something! Human nature require a ying and a yang.
Great analysis.
Matt, Another great blog! You should coin your intro: A lot has changed since nothing happened. My money has been on Tom Cole as fallback SPT. -Don
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A lot has changed since nothing happened. Well worth 8-Points In a 5-point memo!
The Republican Conference is operating as two Political Parties not one. And, as you described it, there are irreconcilable differences. This mirrors the Republican Party nationally. My hunch is that we are witnessing the “once in 60 years” breakup of a National Political Party similar to what happened to the Democrats in 1968. Then the Southern Democrats split into the George Wallace camp and subsequently joined the Republican Party. It also happened in 1912, 1856 and 1828. Who the Speaker is, while functionally important, is only a symptom. In the past, after a split like this, one of the parties joins the opposition. In this case it will lead inevitably to a “coalition” Congressional Party of moderate Republicans and Democrats. What that will mean nationally is another question.
More likely is that the national GOP follows the path of the CA GOP and shrinks to irrelevance while becoming loonier.
Perhaps but that’s not what happens historically. The National Parties are pretty good at adapting and picking up other factions when they lose a big one. For example the Democratic Party, after 1968, lost the “solid Democratic South” left over from their Civil War inheritance, and became the Party of Civil Rights, not only for African Americans but for all minorities, LGBTQ, Hispanics, native Americans etc. The “New” Democratic Party recovered to elect Carter, Clinton, Obama and Biden. The Republicans elected Nixon/ Ford, Reagan, Bush I and Bush II, and Trump. It turned out about even. It’s human nature. It’s always something! Human nature require a ying and a yang.
I think once they exhaust themselves with the nine, they will turn, successfully, to Stefanik. She is tight with Trump but also tight with leadership.