Agreed about Biden. I know the general consensus is that he was tossed, that he didn't have a choice, etc., but I do think had he not withdrawn, he'd probably be the nominee. The pressure would have ramped up, but if the same thing had happened to Trump, he'd have stayed in. In that case, it was big of Biden to step down, even if it took him some time and pressure to come to that conclusion.
I still think it should not have been handed to Kamala. A Shapiro-Whitmer ticket would be up six points nationally instead of 3.
My guess: when people follow up your coin toss answer with "yeah, but," they are wanting to know if you give the smallest of edges to one candidate or the other (51/49 or whatever), or if you truly think it's 50/50.
You mentioned near the end how "everybody liked Biden but nobody loved him in the cult-hero way".
My social circle might be highly anomalous, but the day after the debate, I got a ton of pushback for even suggesting to folks that Harris would be a better nominee than Biden. Over the following few weeks, I continued speaking with several dozen Democrats, and I was pretty amazed at the devotion to Biden, as well as the excuses I heard, like how the debate was just one bad night, or how the media was to blame, etc. I can't put a real percentage on it, but it seems that some non-trivial fraction of the party was incredibly loyal to Biden, and it came as a real shock to me.
It was shocking to me as well and --in my opinion-- the Democrats are experiencing this same delusion with the upcoming election. I think it's clear they've lost the independent vote and all resources are being poured into a gaslight campaign to make this look like a close/surging race.
Agreed about Biden. I know the general consensus is that he was tossed, that he didn't have a choice, etc., but I do think had he not withdrawn, he'd probably be the nominee. The pressure would have ramped up, but if the same thing had happened to Trump, he'd have stayed in. In that case, it was big of Biden to step down, even if it took him some time and pressure to come to that conclusion.
I still think it should not have been handed to Kamala. A Shapiro-Whitmer ticket would be up six points nationally instead of 3.
My guess: when people follow up your coin toss answer with "yeah, but," they are wanting to know if you give the smallest of edges to one candidate or the other (51/49 or whatever), or if you truly think it's 50/50.
Exactly. Right now, if pressed, I'd put it at 55-45 for Kamala. However, she's untested at this level.
You mentioned near the end how "everybody liked Biden but nobody loved him in the cult-hero way".
My social circle might be highly anomalous, but the day after the debate, I got a ton of pushback for even suggesting to folks that Harris would be a better nominee than Biden. Over the following few weeks, I continued speaking with several dozen Democrats, and I was pretty amazed at the devotion to Biden, as well as the excuses I heard, like how the debate was just one bad night, or how the media was to blame, etc. I can't put a real percentage on it, but it seems that some non-trivial fraction of the party was incredibly loyal to Biden, and it came as a real shock to me.
It was shocking to me as well and --in my opinion-- the Democrats are experiencing this same delusion with the upcoming election. I think it's clear they've lost the independent vote and all resources are being poured into a gaslight campaign to make this look like a close/surging race.