Thanks for this Matt. Always find your analysis very rational and grounding. I particularly appreciate it today. While we wait for the more rigorous analysis you mention in #2, do you have any folks you’d recommend following for rational & (relatively) unbiased analysis in the interim? Very curious to begin trying to understand what exactly happened last night. Thanks again!
Treating this like it's just a team losing at football is morally toxic. If they go hard on mass deportations and stripping rights from the LGBT, people who normalize this hate are as much to blame as those who do the work. I am just sick of you all high horse rich people who have no skin in the game playing fast and loose with the lives of millions of people. But your country club membership will still get paid.
I think 13 is going to be wrong. Trump isn't going to dismiss the criminal complaints against him: The Biden DOJ is. Its already going Smith is preparing to drop them. Look, they were untested legal theories of dubious value, or very hard cases to prove in court. Their main value was a political argument, one that was decisively lost. Of course Smith is going to quietly drop them
I get that politics have been thermostatic and that one would normally think the democrats would be back. But doesent that assume free and fair elections? I think we may not have those for several decades, now.
You state, “The Democrats will be back; American politics is thermostatic and contingent and their party brand will recover, quite possibly even in time to make major gains in the House in 2026 and capture the presidency in 2028. You are making a big assumption that the government will be the same, and free and fair elections with a peaceful tradition of power will continue. I think Trump and his followers have different plans.
We are already struggling with this. Unfair gerrymandering, and election laws that attempt to suppress certain segments of the population are already in place.
Trump and his allies have made efforts to influence election officials, courts and legislative bodies in ways in ways that could change how elections are conducted or contested. This includes pushing for state legislatures to adopt alternative slates of electors or encouraging officials to alter vote counts. If these approaches gain traction, they could undermine the independence of electoral institutions and the adherence to established democratic norms.
What confidence do you have that Trump or the party he's built will be willing to cede power any time in the near future? What about the promises of weaponizing DoJ against perceived enemies? Seems like there's so many things he's talked about but nobody knows how serious he is and the party seems mostly willing to go along if it maintains power.
Thanks for this Matt. Always find your analysis very rational and grounding. I particularly appreciate it today. While we wait for the more rigorous analysis you mention in #2, do you have any folks you’d recommend following for rational & (relatively) unbiased analysis in the interim? Very curious to begin trying to understand what exactly happened last night. Thanks again!
Treating this like it's just a team losing at football is morally toxic. If they go hard on mass deportations and stripping rights from the LGBT, people who normalize this hate are as much to blame as those who do the work. I am just sick of you all high horse rich people who have no skin in the game playing fast and loose with the lives of millions of people. But your country club membership will still get paid.
I think 13 is going to be wrong. Trump isn't going to dismiss the criminal complaints against him: The Biden DOJ is. Its already going Smith is preparing to drop them. Look, they were untested legal theories of dubious value, or very hard cases to prove in court. Their main value was a political argument, one that was decisively lost. Of course Smith is going to quietly drop them
I get that politics have been thermostatic and that one would normally think the democrats would be back. But doesent that assume free and fair elections? I think we may not have those for several decades, now.
I keep telling myself that there is no way RFK Jr could get confirmed in the Senate and please don't tell me otherwise.
You state, “The Democrats will be back; American politics is thermostatic and contingent and their party brand will recover, quite possibly even in time to make major gains in the House in 2026 and capture the presidency in 2028. You are making a big assumption that the government will be the same, and free and fair elections with a peaceful tradition of power will continue. I think Trump and his followers have different plans.
Free and fair elections will continue. You can think that a Trump administration will be bad without catastrophizing.
We are already struggling with this. Unfair gerrymandering, and election laws that attempt to suppress certain segments of the population are already in place.
Trump and his allies have made efforts to influence election officials, courts and legislative bodies in ways in ways that could change how elections are conducted or contested. This includes pushing for state legislatures to adopt alternative slates of electors or encouraging officials to alter vote counts. If these approaches gain traction, they could undermine the independence of electoral institutions and the adherence to established democratic norms.
Not really - gerrymandering is a wash as both Blue and Red states do it. None of the election laws suppress certain segments either.
The rest of that is as bad as the conspiracy theorizing of the 'election is stolen' MAGA folks.
What confidence do you have that Trump or the party he's built will be willing to cede power any time in the near future? What about the promises of weaponizing DoJ against perceived enemies? Seems like there's so many things he's talked about but nobody knows how serious he is and the party seems mostly willing to go along if it maintains power.