The entire Speaker election occurs before any swearing-in. All of the participants are Members-elect at that point. The swearing-in occurs immediately after the Speaker election, so the votes on the rules package are done by Members, not Members-elect.
So if all 213 Dems voice a vote for Hakeem Jeffries while 10 or more rebellious Republicans either abstain or voice a “present” vote, Democrats retain the House Speakership for the entirely of the 118th Congress? Or could a GOP majority still any time thereafter motion for a new vote on the Speaker?
In theory, yes, Jeffries (or anyone) could win the Speakership in the scenario you describe. On the floor, the parties do not exist. Anyone can vote for anyone, and the first person to get a majority of Members voting by surname, a quorum being present, becomes the Speaker.
That hypothetical is extremely, extremely unlikely. Republicans who oppose McCarthy can just vote for another candidate by name, and that would preclude Jeffries from winning with 213. (example: Jeffries 213, McCarthy 212, other candidates 9 does not get Jeffries a majority).
As you surmise, it's also pretty useless to have the Speakership if you don't have a working majority. The GOP could simply use their floor majority to either formally vacate the Speakership, or block all action until Jeffries stepped down. It's not tenable to run the House from a minority coalition, even with the powers of the Speakership. The key to the House is not having the Speakership, it's having the majority.
The 1860 Speaker election debate was described as one in which many representatives carried weapons on the House floor.
Can a member-elect vote before being sworn in?
The entire Speaker election occurs before any swearing-in. All of the participants are Members-elect at that point. The swearing-in occurs immediately after the Speaker election, so the votes on the rules package are done by Members, not Members-elect.
So if all 213 Dems voice a vote for Hakeem Jeffries while 10 or more rebellious Republicans either abstain or voice a “present” vote, Democrats retain the House Speakership for the entirely of the 118th Congress? Or could a GOP majority still any time thereafter motion for a new vote on the Speaker?
In theory, yes, Jeffries (or anyone) could win the Speakership in the scenario you describe. On the floor, the parties do not exist. Anyone can vote for anyone, and the first person to get a majority of Members voting by surname, a quorum being present, becomes the Speaker.
That hypothetical is extremely, extremely unlikely. Republicans who oppose McCarthy can just vote for another candidate by name, and that would preclude Jeffries from winning with 213. (example: Jeffries 213, McCarthy 212, other candidates 9 does not get Jeffries a majority).
As you surmise, it's also pretty useless to have the Speakership if you don't have a working majority. The GOP could simply use their floor majority to either formally vacate the Speakership, or block all action until Jeffries stepped down. It's not tenable to run the House from a minority coalition, even with the powers of the Speakership. The key to the House is not having the Speakership, it's having the majority.