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Why exactly are these "must pass" bills? This seems to be an implicit value judgment that even a horrible bill is better than inaction. From a game theory standpoint this does not seem to be necessarily true. The partisan impact of shutdowns/debt ceiling showdowns historically is mixed at worst for Republicans in my opinion.

The Republicans arguably benefitted from the long shutdown in the mid-90s. Clinton basically caved and passed welfare reform. The brinksmanship during the Obama administration won the Republicans the Budget Control Act. While Trump did not win his border wall during his first term shutdown the costly signalling of enabling the shutdown reinforced his immigration hardliner bonafides with the public and might have helped him get reelected in 2024.

If anything the Republicans have an incentive to play even harder ball on the shutdown negotiations. The fact that the GOP leadership now almost always caves to the Democrats' key demands gives credence to the "RINO" charge.

The vast majority of the federal government bureaucrats who would face the financial pain of potential furloughs during a lengthy shutdown are urban, college educated Democrats (the antithesis of the Republican base). A sizable portion of the Republican base despises the federal government and would love nothing more than to see it shuttered and to revel in the schadenfraude of the bureaucrats they blame for their declining standard of living themselves face financial precarity and the spectre of potential unemployment. This should give the GOP establishment negotiators "good cop/bad cop" leverage, but they perenially refuse to use it.

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Brad Van Arnum's avatar

Excellent post, and regarding your very last point, I don't get the sense that Dems are talking enough right now about abolishing the debt limit. I wish I knew why.

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