On the consequences of landslides
How will the 2010 midterm election affect the ideology of the House Democrats? Without speculating or considering how it might have changed the ideologies of individual returning members, it probably is safe to say it will have a moderately large aggregate effect simply via replacement. As many commentators have pointed out (for example here and here), the Democratic losses in the election were skewed toward the more conservative wing of the party's House membership. After the jump, I use some rough-cut empirical data to shed further light on this point.
Below are D-Nominate scores for each Democratic member of the 111th Congress, ranked from most liberal to most conservative. In this ranking, the median Democrats in the 111th Congress were Rep. Jim Langavin and Rep. Mike Doyle. Members colored in green and red represent seats won by Republicans for the 112th Congress; green indicates a seat that was held in the 111th by a Democrat with a D-Nominate score more liberal than the median Democrat; red indicates a seat held by a Democrat with a D-Nominate score more conservative than the median Democrat.
As can be seen, 59 of the lost (or currently losing) Democratic seats were from the conservative half of the caucus. Only 5 were from the liberal half of the caucus. Two obvious implications of this are: (1) the caucus as a whole is likely to be more liberal in the 112th Congress; and (2) the median member of the caucus in the 112th is likely to be more liberal than the median member of the caucus in the 111th.
Four caveats accompany this analysis: Seats being vacated by Democrats that were won for the 112th by Democrats are assumed to have unchanged ideologies. Second, the three Republican seats won by Democrats for the 112th are not included. Third, some of the elections from 2010 have not been decided. In these cases, I went with the current vote leader. Finally, I did not clean the data for deaths or party changes or resignations that occurred during the 111th. Consequently, as noted above, this is a rough cut at the data and the conclusions are generalizations rather than specific numbers.
One quick application to this entails leadership selection. Since the Democrats will be losing one leadership slot (Speaker), some member of the current leadership will need to step out of the leadership. If it is the case that nothing can be arranged informally, the party elections are likely to reflect, in part, the new, more liberal ideology of the caucus. Member D-Nom SCORE MCDERMOT -0.758 KUCINICH -0.741 STARK -0.734 MILLER -0.673 LEE -0.659 WOOLSEY -0.649 FILNER -0.643 CONYERS -0.632 OLVER -0.629 WATERS -0.628 HINCHEY -0.606 SCHAKOWS -0.604 SPEIER -0.603 GARAMENDI -0.602 LEWIS -0.597 PAYNE -0.593 SLAUGHTE -0.593 GRIJALVA -0.586 BALDWIN -0.582 ELLISON -0.582 CLARKE -0.579 EDWARDS -0.578 PALLONE -0.578 DEFAZIO -0.576 FRANK -0.568 MARKEY -0.568 MCGOVERN -0.565 BLUMENAU -0.561 FUDGE -0.554 WATSON -0.542 HONDA -0.541 OBERSTAR -0.539 CAPUANO -0.539 HOLT -0.533 FARR -0.531 MOORE -0.525 JACKSON -0.523 HIRONO -0.522 HASTINGS -0.519 TIERNEY -0.518 CLAY -0.517 WELCH -0.516 CAPPS -0.514 GUTIERRE -0.511 VELAZQUE -0.511 SANCHEZ -0.501 PINGREE -0.492 KILPATRI -0.491 WATT -0.489 NADLER -0.488 TSONGAS -0.487 DELAHUNT -0.481 SERRANO -0.477 JACKSON- -0.473 NAPOLITA -0.473 DAVIS -0.471 WAXMAN -0.47 JOHNSON -0.468 PASTOR -0.464 OBEY -0.463 DOGGETT -0.46 NEAL -0.459 JOHNSON -0.456 SCOTT -0.455 DELAURO -0.455 SUTTON -0.453 VISCLOSK -0.449 TOWNS -0.449 LARSON -0.448 CARSON -0.446 PELOSI -0.445 CHU -0.441 CLEAVER -0.436 RANGEL -0.436 THOMPSON -0.435 MCCOLLUM -0.435 MATSUI -0.435 CASTOR -0.431 LOFGREN -0.431 INSLEE -0.422 BECERRA -0.421 WEXLER -0.42 BRADY -0.416 SHERMAN -0.416 DINGELL -0.415 DEGETTE -0.414 POLIS -0.413 COSTELLO -0.413 ROYBAL-A -0.413 GREEN -0.412 COHEN -0.411 CLYBURN -0.41 CONNOLLY -0.41 FATTAH -0.408 SARBANES -0.406 WASSERMA -0.404 CUMMINGS -0.401 TONKO -0.401 STUPAK -0.4 KENNEDY -0.399 PASCRELL -0.398 WU -0.397 PRICE -0.397 CROWLEY -0.396 RYAN -0.391 KAPTUR -0.39 THOMPSON -0.389 LUJAN -0.388 ESHOO -0.388 LARSEN -0.387 ROTHMAN -0.387 WEINER -0.385 ACKERMAN -0.384 MALONEY -0.384 RUSH -0.383 ANDREWS -0.38 VAN HOLLE -0.38 ABERCROM -0.379 LOWEY -0.379 BROWN -0.377 SANCHEZ -0.375 SIRES -0.371 GRAYSON -0.369 HARE -0.367 RICHARDSON -0.367 BUTTERFI -0.366 LYNCH -0.363 LANGEVIN -0.361 DOYLE -0.355 BERMAN -0.355 BRALEY -0.353 BACA -0.352 LEVIN -0.35 COURTNEY -0.348 LOEBSACK -0.344 TAUSCHER -0.344 YARMUTH -0.343 MILLER -0.342 MEEK -0.341 ISRAEL -0.338 SCHAUER -0.337 BISHOP -0.334 SCHIFF -0.333 ENGEL -0.331 DAVIS -0.331 RAHALL -0.329 KILROY -0.328 MEEKS -0.327 QUIGLEY -0.325 SHEA-PORTER -0.322 KILDEE -0.322 BERRY -0.318 SCHWARTZ -0.318 HOYER -0.316 MORAN -0.315 KAGEN -0.314 MURPHY -0.313 HIGGINS -0.313 HALL -0.311 MICHAUD -0.309 CARNAHAN -0.309 GONZALEZ -0.307 KANJORSK -0.306 RODRIGUEZ -0.304 MCCARTHY -0.301 BERKLEY -0.3 PERLMUTTER -0.3 GREEN -0.299 SPRATT -0.298 HODES -0.296 HARMAN -0.294 HINOJOSA -0.291 MOLLOHAN -0.287 DICKS -0.282 WALZ -0.278 KIND -0.278 ETHERIDG -0.277 WILSON -0.273 REYES -0.273 LIPINSKI -0.269 TITUS -0.268 KISSELL -0.258 RUPPERSBE -0.257 BOSWELL -0.256 SCHRADER -0.255 HALVORSON -0.254 SMITH -0.252 SALAZAR -0.249 SCOTT -0.249 SESTAK -0.244 BAIRD -0.242 DAVIS -0.241 MOORE -0.236 CARDOZA -0.236 CHANDLER -0.232 MASSA -0.231 KLEIN -0.228 EDWARDS -0.225 MURTHA -0.224 POMEROY -0.223 SNYDER -0.222 ORTIZ -0.222 BISHOP -0.221 ROSS -0.218 COOPER -0.218 OWENS -0.216 HERSETH SAN -0.214 MURPHY -0.214 HEINRICH -0.211 MAFFEI -0.207 TANNER -0.205 MARKEY -0.2 HOLDEN -0.2 BOUCHER -0.198 COSTA -0.197 ARCURI -0.195 SKELTON -0.19 FOSTER -0.189 TAYLOR -0.186 DAHLKEMPER -0.185 MCMAHON -0.18 CUELLAR -0.179 PETERSON -0.175 HIMES -0.172 BEAN -0.172 MCNERNEY -0.172 BOCCIERI -0.17 PETERS -0.167 SPACE -0.166 DAVIS -0.163 MCINTYRE -0.163 MELANCON -0.157 BOYD -0.152 ADLER -0.149 DRIEHAUS -0.148 MATHESON -0.141 GORDON -0.136 GIFFORDS -0.125 MARSHALL -0.114 KOSMAS -0.113 TEAGUE -0.112 ELLSWORTH -0.097 CARNEY -0.095 BOREN -0.093 ALTMIRE -0.09 KIRKPATRICK -0.077 PERRIELLO -0.075 DONNELLY -0.072 MURPHY -0.057 BARROW -0.055 SHULER -0.052 MITCHELL -0.036 NYE -0.015 CHILDERS 0.027 KRATOVIL 0.037 HILL 0.039 BRIGHT 0.099 MINNICK 0.144